As the largest El Niño in a millennium prepares to sweep over the globe, communities are unsettled. But what does it mean for the UK? And how likely are we to flood?
From torrential rains to sweltering heatwaves, the El Niño is approaching, bringing with it a string of weather implications in what remains of this year and 2027. But some impacts may be closer to home.
At Living With Water, we're turning our efforts to Hull and the East Riding to get you and your property prepared for what it might mean.
El Niño – What is it?
El Niños are a natural process dating back hundreds of millions of years and it centres around the heating of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. As the wind changes, it leads to rising ocean temperatures and the transfer of vast amounts of heat to the atmosphere. While they happen every few years, their outcomes often switch between warm (El Niño) and cool (La Niña).
What makes this one different?
While El Niños have always had negative and disruptive effects, The Guardian finds that events reaching over 2°C have been labelled 'super'. As we near the end of 2026, the present El Niño heads towards a 4°C forecast, progressing rapidly to a 'hyper' El Niño.
It's the highest anomaly ever recorded, and a reason for the UK to pay attention.
A reminder of our history
At Living With Water, we're teaching people in Hull and the East Riding about the flood risks to our area. As we prepare for the El Niño, here's a reminder of the geographical and infrastructural threats that mean our region has increased risk:
Below sea level
A large part of Hull sits below high tide level, with as much as 2-3 metres in some areas. That means the city relies entirely on man-made flood defences and pumped drainage, posing a flood risk if the El Niño puts them under stress.
Triple threat flood sources
With tidal flooding from the Humber Estuary, river flooding from the River Hull and Humber tributaries, and surface water flooding from overwhelmed drains, heavy rainfall and stronger winds could see all three interacting at once.
History of major flood events
We've been here before. Many residents remember either the 1953 North Sea storm surge or the June 2007 surface water floods (one of the worst in UK history, affecting 8,600 homes). Our region was also hit by further widespread flooding in 2013.
What it means for you this winter
The main impact of El Niño is typically focused on the west coast of North and South America, and across the other side of the Pacific Ocean to Australia. However, this weather phenomenon has far-reaching consequences and even European countries can feel its effects.
Here's what we can potentially expect this winter:
- Wetter than average autumn: The Met Office forecasts a warm, wet autumn, with fallen leaves and rainfall posing a risk of blocked drainage.
- Increased storm risk: Strong winds could bring down branches weakened over the summer, putting houses, roads and drains at risk.
- Potential tidal surges: With more frequent storms combined with high tides, the chance of a tidal surge on the Humber Estuary poses a serious threat.
- Greater surface water pressure: Intense rainfall spells add pressure to drainage systems and pumping stations across the low-lying East Riding, increasing surface water flood risk.
Longer term, El Niño's impact on weather patterns also influences farming and fishing, and can lead to food shortages of some crops, sometimes even globally.
Small changes with big impacts
El Niño may not seem on our doorstep this winter but it's important to be aware of the potential extra flood risks heading into winter.
We can all make a difference. At Living With Water, we have resources available, from creating a flood plan to preparing an emergency flood kit, but small steps are just as important. The UK government states that taking action early helps protect lives and lowers the long-term costs of responding to crises after they've escalated.
"Anticipatory action has proved immensely effective in preventing or reducing impacts on lives and livelihoods."
Aditya Bahadur, Director of Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
How to prepare:
- Unblocking gutters and drains
Blocked gutters can cause water to back up and overflow into your home instead of draining away safely.
- Checking roof tiles
Loose or missing tiles let rain get into your roof space, causing damp and internal damage during heavy storms.
- Removing overhanging or loose branches
Storm winds can snap weak branches, damaging roofs, gutters or windows and blocking drains with debris.
- Identifying and fixing leaks early
Small leaks can point to bigger structural issues and, left unchecked, they weaken a property's ability to cope with heavy rain.
- Checking flood risk in your local area
Knowing your risk means you can prepare in good time rather than being caught off guard.
- Signing up to flood alerts
Early warnings give you crucial time to act before water reaches your property.
How to react if flooding happens:
- Move valuables and essentials
Get electricals, important documents, medicines and sentimental items to a higher location.
- Turn off gas, electricity and water at the mains
Reduces the risk of electrocution, fire or contamination.
- Use sandbags or makeshift barriers at doors
Towels, plastic sheeting or furniture can act as a temporary barrier.
- Block sinks, toilets and drains
Flood water can push sewage back up through pipes, blocking these with sandbags can help reduce this.
- Check on vulnerable neighbours
A quick knock can make a big difference for elderly or disabled residents who may need help.
Final thoughts
It's important to stress that weather predictions are not a guarantee – they're an increased likelihood. Weather and water are often unpredictable and El Niño is no different.
Whether you live in urban, rural or coastal areas, there’s always a type of flooding that can catch you out. El Niño brings a reminder to be flood aware and prepare early, reducing stress on your homes, lives, and streets.
With a few simple steps, you can be prepared for a flood – El Niño or not.
